Wednesday 11 April 2018

Why Russia is politically and militarily strong while being an economic dwarf

Last week I saw a surprising statistic: the GDP of Russia is of the same order of magnitude as the combined GDP of Belgium and the Netherlands. In 2017 Russian GDP was 1,469 billion dollars (according to the International Monetary Fund). Belgium had a GDP of 491 billion dollars and the Netherlands 824 billion dollars; together $ 1,315 billion. In GDP terms, Russia is only 12% larger than Belgium plus the Netherlands.
This perplexing statistic prompted me to ask why politically Russia weighs so much more in the world than Belgium and the Netherlands, while economically that country is hardly stronger than these two countries bordering the North Sea.
Before answering that question, first some other figures that illustrate how an economic lightweight Russia is. US GDP reached USD 19,362 billion in 2017. With GDP as a yardstick, the US is 13 times bigger than Russia. In the same way, other countries can be compared with Russia. China is economically 8 times larger than Russia; Germany 2.5 times more, France 1.8 more, and the European Union as a whole is 12 times bigger than Russia.
The economic size of a country is one of the most important factors that determines its military and political importance in the world. A large economy is needed to provide the means that gives the country military and political weight in the world. So it is clear: Russia is boxing above its economic weight on the international scene.
The fact that Russia means so little economically implies that the country must exert extraordinary efforts to create a strong military potential. In 2017, Russian military spending  amounted to 61 billion dollars (according to the International Institute of Strategic Studies). The US spent nearly 10 times more, namely $ 603 billion. China spent $ 151 billion on defense. France and Germany together spent 90 billion dollars on defense, 50% more than Russia. And yet all these countries spent a much smaller proportion of their GDP on the military than Russia.
Russia is not a major player in the field of military spending. To have a certain military weight, that country must reserve a much larger share of its GDP for defense than the other countries. To mean something militarily, Russia has to put a heavy burden on its own economy.
I come back to my question: why is it that Russia, which economically is a lightweight, has such an importance politically and militarily? Here is an attempt to answer that question.
First there is the fact that, at the time of the Soviet empire, Russia built up a nuclear arsenal that, together with the USA, gives this country a unique position in the world. This is the position of "Mutually Assured Destruction" (MAD). This means that the country has the capacity to completely destroy the opponent in the event of a nuclear attack on its own territory. No other nuclear power (outside the US) has that capacity today. As long as Russia has such a terrible MAD capacity, it will be politically heavier than its GDP suggests.
Russia is also an important supplier of raw materials, including oil and gas. This gives the country a political lever with regard to Western Europe. It is possible by turning the tap (or threatening to do so) to exert pressure on a number of European countries. However, that effect should not be overestimated. Russia also knows that the use of this weapon will in time encourage European countries to find other sources of supply. The power of Russia is limited in this domain because the country does not have a monopoly in oil and gas.
Finally, and that is my most important point, Russia is powerful because Europe grants that power to Russia. Europe has built up an economic union but not a defense union. The European Union is economically 12 times larger than Russia; A huge potential power. However, this economic power is not converted into military and political power because defense has remained a national matter. By merging their military capabilities, it would be possible for France and Germany to build a credible defense against Russian threats, without having to spend more. The combined military spending of such a Franco-German defense union would be 50% higher than Russian military spending. Enough to offer a counterweight to a Russian dictator whose political and military ambitions in Europe remain unknown.

"Si vis pacem, para bellum" said the Romans. If you want peace, you should prepare the war. Translated to the European situation of today this means that Europe should build a credible defense union. This by itself would reduce the military and political power of Russia.

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  2. You are doing the comparison in nominal numbers, when it has to be done on purchasing power parity. Russian GDP corrected by PPP is about the same size as Germany's. Just one illustration of the necessity of doing the comparisons in this manner, is the fact that the wages are multiple times higher in the West by dollar denominations. The average wage in the US is for example some 6-7 times higher, so the US needs a 6 to 7 times higher military budget (in dollar terms) just to hire the same number of soldiers, engineers, mechanics etc. as Russia.

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  3. The author forgot that Soviet Union was the second economic power of the world until 1990. He also forgot that Soviet Union, mainly Russia, was looted of $2 trillion after 1990, and encountered a forced stagnation of more than 10 years. The same situation was encountered by the rest of Eastern Europe that was looted or lost on purpose another $2 trillion.
    On the other hand Russia was forced to defend itself and to spend after 2000 significant amounts on re-arming and modernization.
    What about sanctions and their role?
    How unfair could be this article!

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  33. We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC and MTN which are specifically for lease, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project (s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffer driven offers.

    We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable, below is our instrument description.

    The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee will be paid after the delivery of the MT760,

    DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENTS:

    1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG/SBLC) (Appendix A)
    2. Total Face Value: Eur 5M MIN and Eur 10B MAX (Ten Billion USD).
    3. Issuing Bank: HSBC Bank London, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Frankfurt.
    4. Age: One Year, One Month
    5. Leasing Price: 6% of Face Value plus 2% commission fees to brokers.
    6. Delivery: Bank to Bank swift.
    7. Payment: MT-103 or MT760
    8. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days.

    We are ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me direct. wrightjames931@gmail.com

    Regards,
    Wright
    Skype;
    wrightjames931@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  34. We are project funder with our cutting edge and group capital fund we can finance your signatory projects and help you to enhance your business plan, our financial instrument can be used for purchase of good from any manufacturer irrespective of location.  
    We can help facilitate the financial service bank instrument SBLC /BG, We remain the best financial consulting company with years of experience in the international and local finance market. 

    We have become the hallmark of excellent service in this industry with trusted and genuine FCA registered SBLC Providers who have truly succeeded in creating significant value for all clients and brokers involved in leasing or purchasing sblc.

    DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENT:
    1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee {BG} /StandBy Letter of Credit{SBLC} (Appendix A)2. Total Face Value: Eur/USD 1M{Minimum} to Eur/USD 10B{Maximum}3. Issuing Bank: AAA Rated Bank (Prime Bank).4. Age: One Year and One Day5. Leasing Price: 4% + 2%    Purchase Price : 32% + 2%6. Delivery: S.W.I.F.T MT-7607. Payment: MT103 (TT/WT)8. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier Service
    We specialize in Bank Guarantee lease and sales.
    Contact us for more details.
    Email  info.fpfpuk@gmail.com
    Name  davy George 

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  38. We are Ireland based major/Direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC, POF, MTN, Bonds and CDs and this financial instruments are specifically for lease and sale.We are one of the leading Financial instrument providers with offices all over Europe.
    we always deliver on time and precision as Set forth in the agreement. You are at liberty to engage our leased facilities into trade programs, project financing, Credit line enhancement, Corporate Loans (Business Start-up Loans or Business Expansion Loans), Equipment Procurement Loans (Industrial Equipment, Air crafts, Ships, etc.) as well as other financial instruments issued from AAA Rated bank such as HSBC Bank Hong Kong, HSBC Bank London, Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, Barclays Bank , Standard Chartered Bank and others on lease at the lowest available rates depending on the face value of the instrument needed, Our Terms and Conditions are reasonable.
    DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENTS:
    1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG)/SBLC (Appendix A)
    2. Total Face Value: 10M MIN to 50B MAX USD or Euro
    3. Issuing Bank: HSBC, Deutsche Bank Frankfurt, UBS or any Top 25 .
    4. Age: One Year, One Day
    5. Leasing Price: 4+ 2%
    6. Sale Price: 32+2%
    7. Delivery by SWIFT .
    8. Payment: MT103-23
    9. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days.
    If you have need for Corporate loans, International project funding, etc. or if you have a client that requires funding for his project or business, We are also affiliated with lenders who specialize on funding against financial instruments, such as BG, SBLC, POF or MTN, we fund 100% of the face value of the financial instrument.
    Inquiries from agents/ brokers/ intermediaries are also welcomed; do get back to us if you are interested in any of our services and for quality service.
    Name : Hilary Desmond
    E-mail : hilarydesmond77@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
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  43. Dear Sir,

    We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC and MTN which are specifically for lease, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffeur driven offers.

    We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable, below is our instrument description.

    The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee will be paid after the delivery of the MT760,
    Description OF INSTRUMENTS:

    1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG/SBLC)
    2. Total Face Value: Eur/USD 5M MIN and Eur/USD 10B MAX (Ten Billion EURO/USD).
    3. Issuing Bank: HSBC Bank London, Barclay's bank London,Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Frankfurt.
    4. Age: One Year, One Month
    5. Leasing Price: 6% of Face Value plus 2% commission fees to brokers.
    6. Delivery: Bank to Bank swift.
    7. Payment: MT-103 or MT760
    8. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days.

    We are ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me.


    Regards,
    kelvin Bright
    Skype: kelvinbrigth84@gmail.com
    Email: kelvinbrigth84@gmail.com
    Phone/Whatsapp: +447546769978

    ReplyDelete
  44. Dear Sir,

    We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC and MTN which are specifically for lease, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffeur driven offers.

    We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable, below is our instrument description.

    The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee will be paid after the delivery of the MT760,
    Description OF INSTRUMENTS:

    1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG/SBLC)
    2. Total Face Value: Eur/USD 5M MIN and Eur/USD 10B MAX (Ten Billion EURO/USD).
    3. Issuing Bank: HSBC Bank London, Barclay's bank London,Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Frankfurt.
    4. Age: One Year, One Month
    5. Leasing Price: 6% of Face Value plus 2% commission fees to brokers.
    6. Delivery: Bank to Bank swift.
    7. Payment: MT-103 or MT760
    8. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days.

    We are ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me.


    Regards,
    kelvin Bright
    Skype: kelvinbrigth84@gmail.com
    Email: kelvinbrigth84@gmail.com
    Phone/Whatsapp: +447546769978

    ReplyDelete
  45. We are project funder as well as financial lender. We have BG/SBLC specifically for BUY/LEASE at a leasing price of 4%+2% of face value Issuance by HSBC London and many other 25 top AA rated Bank in Europe, Middle East or USA. We also secure funding. Also We are into the provision of short term and long term business/personal loans for both small and large scale business funds.

    * FOR LEASING OF BG/SBLC
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M
    LEASING FEE = 4%+2%

    * FOR PURCHASE OF FRESH CUT BG/SBLC
    PRICE = 32%+2%
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M

    Kindly contact us for our procedures and be sure that we shall respond within 48hrs maximum.

    Intermediaries/Consultants/Brokers are welcome to bring their clients and are 100% protected. In complete confidence, we will work together for the benefits of all parties involved.
    Contact Name : Blaine Lorcan
    Contact Email: blainelorcan@gmail.com
    Skype:blainelorcan@gmail.com
    WhatsApp: +1(501)420-4128

    ReplyDelete
  46. We have a direct genuine provider for BG/SBLC specifically for lease, at leasing price of 4+2 of face value, Issuance by HSBC London/Hong Kong or any other AA rated Bank in Europe, Middle East or USA.

    Contact : Mr. DARREN C CHENG
    Email: Darrencraig002@gmail.com

    Intermediaries/Consultants/Brokers are welcome to bring their clients and are 100% protected. In complete confidence, we will work together for the benefits of all parties involved.

    All inquires to Mr. Darren should include the following minimum information so I can quickly address your needs:

    Complete contact information:
    What exactly do you need?
    How long do you need it for?
    Are you a principal borrower or a broker?

    Contact me for more details.

    Whatsapp: +19733700521

    ReplyDelete
  47. We are major/Direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC, POF, MTN, Bonds and CDs and this financial instruments are specifically for lease and sale.We are one of the leading Financial instrument providers with offices all over Europe. 
    We are major/Direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC, POF, MTN, Bonds and CDs and this financial instruments are specifically for lease and sale.We are one of the leading Financial instrument providers with offices all over Europe. 
    we always deliver on time and precision as Set forth in the agreement. You are at liberty to engage our leased facilities into trade programs, project financing, Credit line enhancement, Corporate Loans (Business Start-up Loans or Business Expansion Loans), Equipment Procurement Loans (Industrial Equipment, Air crafts, Ships, etc.) as well as other financial instruments issued from AAA Rated bank such as HSBC Bank Hong Kong, HSBC Bank London, Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, Barclays Bank , Standard Chartered Bank and others on lease at the lowest available rates depending on the face value of the instrument needed, Our Terms and Conditions are reasonable. 

    DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENTS: 
    1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG)/SBLC (Appendix A) 
    2. Total Face Value: 10M MIN to 50B MAX USD or Euro 
    3. Issuing Bank: HSBC, Deutsche Bank Frankfurt, UBS or any Top 25 . 
    4. Age: One Year, One Day 
    5. Leasing Price: 4 1% 
    6. Sale Price: 32 2% 
    7. Delivery by SWIFT . 
    8. Payment: MT103-23 
    9. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days 

    We are ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me direct. 

    Name:May Gary 
    Email:algecoglobalfinanceplc@gmail.com 
    Skype::algecoglobalfinanceplc    
     

    ReplyDelete
  48. DEAR SIR,

    I am a direct Mandate to a genuinely renowned Investment Finance Company offering Cash & Asset Backed Financial Instruments on Lease and Sale at the best rates and with the most feasible procedures.

    Instruments offered can be put in all forms of trade and can be monetized or discounted for direct funding.

    For Inquiry contact Email: forwardtrade0027@gmail.com
    Skype ID: forwardtradeplc0022@hotmail.com
    WhatsApp Number: +46-764-34-9014

    Regards,
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    ReplyDelete
  49. DEAR SIR,

    I am a direct Mandate to a genuinely renowned Investment Finance Company offering Cash & Asset Backed Financial Instruments on Lease and Sale at the best rates and with the most feasible procedures.

    Instruments offered can be put in all forms of trade and can be monetized or discounted for direct funding.

    For Inquiry contact Email: forwardtrade0027@gmail.com
    Skype ID: forwardtradeplc0022@hotmail.com
    WhatsApp Number: +46-764-34-9014

    Regards,
    Daniel Nicolas.

    ReplyDelete
  50. GENUINE BANK GUARANTEE (BG) AND STANDBY LETTER OF CREDIT (SBLC) FOR LEASE AT THE LOWEST RATES AVAILABLE. OTHER FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS SUCH AS MTN, CD, DLC, PB ARE ALSO AVAILABLE.

    I am direct to a provider who has recently issued banking instruments for a couple of my clients the provider is 100% check-able you can do your due diligence on them. I personally know the provider.

    Our instruments are only from triple 'a' rated banks and we issue from $1M to $5B . The provider is 100% verifiable. If you are genuinely seeking bank instruments. Contact me and i will furnish you with details.

    They deal with issuing of instruments such as Bank Guarantee and Standby letters of credit also Letters of credit. I only want serious buyers then i will put you in touch with the provider directly.

    - Bank Guarantee (BG)
    - Standby Letter of Credit (SBLC)
    - Direct Line of Credit (DLC)
    - Medium Term Note (MTN)
    - Letter of Credit (LC)
    I will be glad to share with you our working procedures.
    Contact : Robert Bouffad
    Email: Lendingtreemoney@gmail.com
    Whatsapp: +447586540601
    Postal address
    Swiss National Bank
    Börsenstrasse 15
    P. O. Box
    CH-8022 Zurich
    BROKERS ARE WELCOME & 100% PROTECTED!!!

    ReplyDelete
  51. GENUINE BANK GUARANTEE (BG) AND STANDBY LETTER OF CREDIT (SBLC) FOR LEASE AT THE LOWEST RATES AVAILABLE. OTHER FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS SUCH AS MTN, CD, DLC, PB ARE ALSO AVAILABLE.

    I am direct to a provider who has recently issued banking instruments for a couple of my clients the provider is 100% check-able you can do your due diligence on them. I personally know the provider.

    Our instruments are only from triple 'a' rated banks and we issue from $1M to $5B . The provider is 100% verifiable. If you are genuinely seeking bank instruments. Contact me and i will furnish you with details.

    They deal with issuing of instruments such as Bank Guarantee and Standby letters of credit also Letters of credit. I only want serious buyers then i will put you in touch with the provider directly.

    - Bank Guarantee (BG)
    - Standby Letter of Credit (SBLC)
    - Direct Line of Credit (DLC)
    - Medium Term Note (MTN)
    - Letter of Credit (LC)
    I will be glad to share with you our working procedures.
    Contact : Robert Bouffad
    Email: Lendingtreemoney@gmail.com
    Whatsapp: +447586540601
    Postal address
    Swiss National Bank
    Börsenstrasse 15
    P. O. Box
    CH-8022 Zurich
    BROKERS ARE WELCOME & 100% PROTECTED!!!

    ReplyDelete
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  54. My name is DARREN CRAIG I'm a financial Consultant of a reputable firm Operating out of the United Kingdom
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  55. Are you looking to Discount, Monetize, or create an immediate Non Recourse loan against a Leased or Purchased bank instrument such as BG,SBLC and Bank Drafts, We solely deal with real deals, real people and real Leased & Purchased Bank instruments that need real monetization. The Bank SWIFT Network is the Gold Standard that validates that your Leased & Purchased Bank instruments is real and it provides a respected industry platform where guaranteed settlement can be facilitated.

    Our contracts also include the monetizer returning the Leased bank instrument to the Issuing bank 15 days prior to the bank instrument expiration.

    Standby Letter of Credit Monetization LTV:

    *Leased BG/SBLC Monetization - 65% Non Recourse
    *Purchased BG/SBLC Monetization - 90% Non Recourse.

    Estimated Completion Time:

    *2-3 Days After Instrument Delivery on the SWIFT Networks.

    We also have trusted and long term business partners/providers who can facilitate issuance & delivery of bank instruments such as BG,SBLC,LC,DLC and Bank Draft at Lease Price 4% + 2% and Purchase price at 32% + 2% where 2% is agent and brokers commission.

    For further enquiries, we can be reached at the information below.

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    Name: GARVAN MAIREAD

    Whatsapp : +17329300338

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  59. GENUINE BANK GUARANTEE(BG) LETTER OF CREDIT(LC) BUSINESS LOAN AND STANDBY LETTER OF CREDIT (SBLC)

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    We offer certified and verifiable bank instruments via Swift Transmission from a genuine provider capable of taking up time bound transactions.



    FOR LEASING OF BG/SBLC

    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M-10B

    LEASING FEE = 4%+2%



    FOR PURCHASE OF FRESH CUT BG/SBLC

    PRICE = 32%+2%

    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M-10B



    MONETIZATION LTV 80%

    Our BG/SBLC Financing can help you get your project funded, loan financing by providing you with yearly. we ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days

    Email : financialexpert86@gmail.com

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  61. Hello,

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  65. FINANCIAL AGENT LIMITED provides a full financial planning service to both the commercial and domestic markets. At IQ FINANCE PLC we believe that financial planning is about two things: creating wealth and protecting wealth. These two objectives are at the heart of everything we do. And, as a member of FINANCIAL AGENT LIMITED Services, we give you a small-company service but with a large-company set up – the best of both worlds.
    You are at liberty to engage our leased facilities into trade programs as well as in signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges and any other turnkey project(s) etc. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable.
    Leasing Price : 6%+2%
    Buying Price: 38%+2%

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  68. We offer certified and verifiable financial bank instruments via Swift Transmission from a genuine provider capable
    of taking up time bound transactions.
    FOR LEASING OF FRESH CUT BG/SBLC
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M
    LEASING PRICE = 4%+2%
    FOR PURCHASE OF FRESH CUT BG/SBLC
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M
    PURCHASE PRICE = 32%+2%
    Our BG/SBLC Financing can help you get your project funded,
    loan financing by providing you with yearly.
    RWA ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days
    I will be glad to share with you our working procedures.
    Name : Christopher Liam
    Email : trustedfinancemandate@gmail.com
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  69. تلك الألواح  لها أهمية أكبر ويجب عدم اهمالها عند تشطيب المنازل والفلل كأداة أساسية في أعمال الديكورات، فألواح التكسية عبارة عن مواد تشطيب خارجية يكون هدفها الوحيد هو ضمان حماية المبنى التجاري أو السكني الذي تم تأمينه له بشكل صحيح تختلف اسعار الواح كلادينج في مصر بالنسبة لمعظم الأشخاص الذين لا يدركون أهمية استخدام ألواح الكلادينج  وسيفترضون أنهم ببساطة ألواح معدنية كبيرة مثبتة على الإطار التجاري فقط، نود أن نشير أنك قد تكونوا على صواب ولكن ما نحب أن نوضحه أن

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  70. Hello,

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