Since the start of the summer, crude oil prices have started a
steep decline again. From more than $60 a barrel in June the crude oil price
has dropped to approximately $42. One year ago the crude oil price exceeded
$100 a barrel. These are fantastic price
declines rarely seen in the oil market. They have helped the many European
Countries to climb out of the recession. This is not surprising. A price
decline of this magnitude means that consumers who spend a significant part of
their total budget on gasoline now find out that after filling their cars with
fuel they have purchasing power left over to buy other things.
Put differently, the oil price decline is equivalent to a reduction
in taxes. As a result, disposable income has increased. This effect has been
strong enough to more than offset the austerity policies pursued in many
European countries. It is responsible for the economic recovery that we have
seen in most of Europe. Thus, it appears that the oil price decline is good
news.
While the short-term effects of the oil price decline are
positive, the long-term effects are not. One year ago crude oil prices stood
above $100 a barrel. This created a powerful incentive to develop and expand
the use of alternative sources of energy such a solar and wind energy. The
latter had become profitable at such high oil prices. Today with low oil prices
this may not be the case anymore in many countries.
In addition, low oil prices also have as a pernicious effect
of making transportation by car, trucks and planes much cheaper again. As a
result, this will give renewed incentives for excessive worldwide
specialization intensifying the massive transportation of goods and commodities
from one corner of the world to the other. This will increase the emission of
CO2 and will further speed up the global warming.
Our conclusion therefore is that if the low oil prices are
maintained the long-term effects for the world are very negative. These long-term
negative effects most likely outweigh the positive business cycle effects
experienced today.
How can this conflict between the short-term positive and
long-term negative effects be solved? The economic answer is easy; the
political one is difficult.
It would be easy for governments of the oil importing
countries to solve this problem by raising taxes on fuel so as to keep gasoline
prices at the level existing one year ago and to use the additional tax revenues
to lower other taxes, e.g. personal income taxes. As a result, consumers would
continue to enjoy a higher purchasing power. This higher purchasing power would
not be the result of lower gasoline prices, but of lower income taxes.
Thus, such a tax shift (more fuel taxes and less income taxes)
would make it possible to maintain the positive short-term effects on the
business cycle, as consumers would have more money to spend. At the same time,
because it keeps the fuel prices high for the users, it avoids all the negative
long-term consequences of low oil prices for the environment. Simple, wouldn’t you think? Yes, but
unfortunately the politics is more difficult.
The political problem arises from the fact that the higher
fuel taxes that the governments have to introduce create many enemies. These
are the car companies and the transportation industry. They all profit from the
present low oil prices and are likely to resist any tax increase on fuel. In
contrast consumers are mostly indifferent whether the increase in purchasing
power comes about by lower gasoline prices or by lower income taxes. The net
effect is that it will be difficult for governments to overcome the political
resistance that will be organized by the car companies and the transportation
industry.
The only way out of this political problem is through an
opposing political force. Such an opposing force can come about when large
segments of the population recognize that low oil prices increase the risk of
global warming and that this can be stopped at little cost in terms of economic
growth today. Such a force can twist the
arms of the politicians to act and to safeguard the interests of the general
population, today and in the future.
