Last week I saw a surprising statistic: the GDP of Russia is
of the same order of magnitude as the combined GDP of Belgium and the
Netherlands. In 2017 Russian GDP was 1,469 billion dollars (according to the
International Monetary Fund). Belgium had a GDP of 491 billion dollars and the
Netherlands 824 billion dollars; together $ 1,315 billion. In GDP terms, Russia
is only 12% larger than Belgium plus the Netherlands.
This perplexing statistic prompted me to ask why politically Russia
weighs so much more in the world than Belgium and the Netherlands, while economically
that country is hardly stronger than these two countries bordering the North Sea.
Before answering that question, first some other figures that
illustrate how an economic lightweight Russia is. US GDP reached USD 19,362
billion in 2017. With GDP as a yardstick, the US is 13 times bigger than
Russia. In the same way, other countries can be compared with Russia. China is
economically 8 times larger than Russia; Germany 2.5 times more, France 1.8
more, and the European Union as a whole is 12 times bigger than Russia.
The economic size of a country is one of the most important
factors that determines its military and political importance in the world. A large
economy is needed to provide the means that gives the country military and
political weight in the world. So it is clear: Russia is boxing above its
economic weight on the international scene.
The fact that Russia means so little economically implies that
the country must exert extraordinary efforts to create a strong military
potential. In 2017, Russian military spending
amounted to 61 billion dollars (according to the International Institute
of Strategic Studies). The US spent nearly 10 times more, namely $ 603 billion.
China spent $ 151 billion on defense. France and Germany together spent 90
billion dollars on defense, 50% more than Russia. And yet all these countries
spent a much smaller proportion of their GDP on the military than Russia.
Russia is not a major player in the field of military
spending. To have a certain military weight, that country must reserve a much
larger share of its GDP for defense than the other countries. To mean something
militarily, Russia has to put a heavy burden on its own economy.
I come back to my question: why is it that Russia, which
economically is a lightweight, has such an importance politically and
militarily? Here is an attempt to answer that question.
First there is the fact that, at the time of the Soviet
empire, Russia built up a nuclear arsenal that, together with the USA, gives
this country a unique position in the world. This is the position of
"Mutually Assured Destruction" (MAD). This means that the country has
the capacity to completely destroy the opponent in the event of a nuclear
attack on its own territory. No other nuclear power (outside the US) has that
capacity today. As long as Russia has such a terrible MAD capacity, it will be
politically heavier than its GDP suggests.
Russia is also an important supplier of raw materials,
including oil and gas. This gives the country a political lever with regard to
Western Europe. It is possible by turning the tap (or threatening to do so) to
exert pressure on a number of European countries. However, that effect should
not be overestimated. Russia also knows that the use of this weapon will in
time encourage European countries to find other sources of supply. The power of
Russia is limited in this domain because the country does not have a monopoly
in oil and gas.
Finally, and that is my most important point, Russia is
powerful because Europe grants that power to Russia. Europe has built up an
economic union but not a defense union. The European Union is economically 12
times larger than Russia; A huge potential power. However, this economic power
is not converted into military and political power because defense has remained
a national matter. By merging their military capabilities, it would be possible
for France and Germany to build a credible defense against Russian threats, without
having to spend more. The combined military spending of such a Franco-German
defense union would be 50% higher than Russian military spending. Enough to
offer a counterweight to a Russian dictator whose political and military ambitions
in Europe remain unknown.
"Si vis pacem, para bellum" said the Romans. If you
want peace, you should prepare the war. Translated to the European situation of
today this means that Europe should build a credible defense union. This by
itself would reduce the military and political power of Russia.