The UK has a new government under the leadership of Theresa
May. The mandate of the new government, as the new prime minister stated, is to
"make a success of Brexit". Although the detail of what success here
means is unclear, there can be no doubt about what it means in general. It
should be interpreted as keeping access to the EU single market while gaining
concessions from the EU about the rights of the United Kingdom to control
immigration. In other words: trying to square the circle. Something the Brexit
campaigners have led millions of British citizens to believe can be done
easily.
What negotiation strategy should the European Union take? Here
is the choice that must be presented to the UK. Either the UK government takes
over the Norwegian model or it stands alone and negotiates new trade agreements
with the EU and about fifty other countries (or group of countries) in the
framework of the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The EU must make
it clear that there is nothing between these two choices. There can be no
"special deal" with the United Kingdom.
If the UK accepts the Norwegian model, it retains full access
to the single market. In that case there are no obstacles for British goods and
services in the EU and for EU goods and services in the UK. But the price the
UK pays in this model is the free movement of EU citizens in and out of the UK.
Without the free movement of people there can be no free movement of services.
This is the core of the single market. Moreover, the Brits will have to accept two
other things in the Norwegian model. First, they will have to abide by the rules on
standards, health and safety that are decided in Brussels without being involved
in the decision making process. Secondly, they will have to contribute to the
European budget.
It is very unlikely that the UK government will accept this
model. The Brexit camp considers free migration and Brussels legislation as diabolic
and will revolt if the UK government accepts these conditions. True there is an
important faction in the new government that is attached to maintaining full
access to the single market and sees few problems in accepting free movement of
people and Brussels regulation. But this faction is probably too weak to
counter the demands of Brexit
supporters.
I assume, therefore, that the British government will reject
the Norwegian model and will try to obtain concessions from the EU that reduce
migration flows, while ensuring access to the single market. Here, the EU must
make it clear that a special deal with the UK is excluded. The EU must insist
that the only other option for the UK is to stand on its own feet, and to start
negotiating new trade deals with the EU and other countries after Brexit is
completed. In other words, the UK must be treated like the US, China, Brazil,
etc., i.e. as sovereign nations that insist on maintaining full sovereignty over
their trade agreements. The trade negotiations between the UK and the rest will
take years, if not decades. Their outcome is uncertain. It is not clear, for
example whether the UK will be able to maintain free movement of services with
the EU as this freedom is intimately linked to the free movement of people. But
that is a problem for the Brits who have chosen to embrace full sovereignty.
Here are the reasons why the EU should not accept to be
dragged down in negotiating a special deal with the UK. Some EU-countries are
tempted today to also organize referenda. I have no problem in principle
against such referenda. If citizens of a country dislike being member of a
club, they should be able to leave. This will be better for all. There is no
point in living together with people who intensely dislike each other. However,
it is in the interest of both parties that the terms of the divorce should be
made clear in advance.
That is why the EU should make it clear what potential exiters
should expect. It will be either the Norwegian model or a “standalone-model” in
which the newly sovereign nations will face the difficult task of establishing
new trade agreements on their own. Clarity is essential for those who consider
leaving the EU. This clarity can only be achieved by excluding a privileged
trade agreement with the United Kingdom.
When the UK joined the EU in 1973 its main strategy was to
prevent the union from becoming too strong. The UK political elite decided that
this could best be achieved from inside the union. Now that the UK is departing
the century old British strategy remains the same, i.e. to weaken the forces
that can make Europe stronger. The UK can achieve this by insisting on a
special deal between the UK and the EU whereby the UK maintains the benefits of
the union while not sharing in the costs. Such a deal, if it comes about, will
signal to other member countries that by exiting they can continue to enjoy the
benefits of the union without the costs. Such a prospect would fatally weaken
the European Union.