The discussions about Brexit have centered around the question
of whether it is in the national interest of the United Kingdom to remain in
the EU or to leave it. It appears today that the British public is split about
this question, so that the outcome of the referendum remains highly uncertain.
The question of whether it is in the interest of the EU that
the UK remains a member of the union has been discussed much less intensely.
The conventional wisdom in Brussels is that the answer to that question is
positive. The UK should remain a member
of the EU. A Brexit would be very harmful for the future of the European Union.
But is that so?
There is a deep-seated hostility of the British media and
large parts of the political elite against the European Union. This hostility
has found its political expression in the Brexit movement. The proponents of
Brexit cannot accept that the UK has lost sovereignty in many areas in which
the EU has competences. They abhor the fact that Britain has to accept
decisions taken in Brussels, even if it has opposed these. For the Brexit-camp
there is only one ultimate objective: to return full sovereignty to
Westminster.
Those who believe that a referendum will finally settle the
issue have it wrong. Let us suppose that the Brexit-camp is defeated and the UK
remains in the EU. That will not stop the hostility of those who have lost the
referendum. It will not reduce their ambition to bring back full sovereignty to
the United Kingdom.
Having found out that they cannot leave the EU, the
Brexit-camp will shift its strategy to
achieve the objective of returning power to Westminster. It will be a Trojan horse strategy. This will
imply working from within to undermine the union. It will be a strategy aiming
at shrinking the area of decision making with majority rule and replacing it
with an intergovernmental approach. The
purpose of the British enemies of the EU will be a slow deconstruction of the
union so as to achieve the objective of returning power to Westminster.
One may argue that having lost the referendum, the Brexit-camp
will lose influence. That is far from certain. The agreement achieved by
Cameron with the rest of the EU has not transferred a shred of sovereignty back
to Westminster. This will be seen by the Brexit-camp as a huge failure, leading
them to intensify their deconstruction strategy.
I conclude that it is
not in the interest of the EU to keep a country in the union that will continue
to be hostile to “l’acquis communautaire” and that will follow a strategy to
further undermine it.
I therefore also conclude that it will be better for the
European Union that the Brexit-camp wins the referendum. When Britain is kept
out of the EU it will no longer be able to undermine the EU’s cohesion. The EU
will come out stronger.
Britain will be weakened and will have to knock
at the door of the EU to start negotiating a trade agreement. In the process it
will have lost its bargaining chips. The EU will be able to impose a trade deal
that will not be much different from what the UK has today as a member of the
EU. At the same time it will have reduced the power of a country whose ambition
it is to undermine the cohesion of the union.